- Number of peer-reviewed journal publications: 21
- Number of first author publications: 12
- H-index: 9 (Scopus), 11 (Google Scholar)
- Kolstad, E.W., E.A. Barnes and S.P. Sobolowski: Quantifying the Role of Land–Atmosphere Feedbacks in Mediating Near-Surface Temperature Persistence. Revised version submitted to Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society [pdf]
- Kolstad, E.W. and T.J. Bracegirdle: Sensitivity of an Apparently Hurricane-like Polar Low to Sea Surface Temperature. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, accepted
- Day, J.J., G. Svensson, I.M. Brooks, C. Bitz, L. Broman, G. Carver, M. Chevallier, H. Goessling, K. Hartung, T. Jung, J.E. Kay, E.W. Kolstad, D. Perovich, J. Screen, S. Siemen, F. Vána: The Abisko Polar Prediction School. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Kolstad, E. W., T. J. Bracegirdle and M. Zahn: Re-examining the roles of surface heat flux and latent heat release in a 'hurricane-like' polar low over the Barents Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research–Atmospheres, 121, p. 7853-7867 [pdf]
- Kolstad, E. W. (2006): A new climatology of favourable conditions for reverse-shear polar lows. Tellus A, 58, 344–354 [pdf]
- Kolstad, E. W. (2008): A QuikSCAT climatology of ocean surface winds in the Nordic Seas: identification of features and comparison with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Journal of Geophysical Research–Atmospheres, 113, D11106 [pdf]
- Kolstad, E. W. and T. J. Bracegirdle (2008): Marine cold-air outbreaks in the future: an assessment of IPCC AR4 model results for the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dynamics, 30 (7–8), 871–885 [pdf]
- Kolstad, E. W., T. J. Bracegirdle and I. A. Seierstad (2009): Marine cold-air outbreaks in the North Atlantic: temporal distribution and associations with large-scale atmospheric circulation. Climate Dynamics, 33 (2): 187–197 [pdf]
- Bracegirdle, T. J. and E. W. Kolstad (2010): Climatology and variability of Southern Hemisphere marine cold-air outbreaks. Tellus A, 62: 202–208 [pdf]
- Kolstad, E. W., T. Breiteig and A. A. Scaife (2010): The association between stratospheric weak polar vortex events and cold air outbreaks in the Northern hemisphere. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 136, 886–893. DOI: 10.1002/qj.620 [pdf]
- Kolstad, E. W. and K. A. Johansson (2010): Uncertainties associated with quantifying climate change impacts on human health: a case study for diarrhea. Environ. Health Perspect., 119, 299–305. DOI: 10.1289/ehp.1002060
- Kolstad, E. W. and A. J. Charlton-Perez (2011): Observed and simulated precursors of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim. Dynam., 37 (7–8), 1443–1456. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0919-7
- J. E. Kristjánsson and E. W. Kolstad (2011): IPY-THORPEX (editorial). Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1657–1658. DOI: 10.1002/qj.965
- Reeve, M. A. and E. W. Kolstad (2011): The Spitsbergen South Cape tip jet. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1739–1748. DOI: 10.1002/qj.876
- Kolstad, E. W. (2011): A global climatology of favourable conditions for polar lows. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1749–1761. DOI: 10.1002/qj.888
- Kristjánsson, J. E., S. Thorsteinsson, E. W. Kolstad and A. M. Blechschmidt (2011): Orographic influence of East Greenland on a Polar Low over the Denmark Strait. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1773–1789. DOI: 10.1002/qj.831
- Kristjánsson, J. E., I. Barstad, T. Aspelien, I. Føre, Ø. Godøy, Ø. Hov, E. Irvine, T. Iversen, E. W. Kolstad, T.E. Nordeng, H. McInnes, R. Randriamampianina, J. Reuder, Ø. Sætra, M. Shapiro, T. Spengler and H. Olafsson (2011): The Norwegian IPY-THORPEX: Polar Lows and Arctic Fronts during the 2008 Andøya campaign. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 92, 1443–1466. DOI: 10.1175/2011BAMS2901.1
- Føre, I., J. E. Kristjánsson, E. W. Kolstad, T. J. Bracegirdle, Ø. Sætra and B. Røsting (2011): A “hurricane-like” polar low fueled by sensible heat flux: high-resolution numerical simulations. Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 138, 1308–1324. DOI: 10.1002/qj.1876
- Støren, E. W. N., E. W. Kolstad and Ø. Paasche (2012): Linking past flood frequencies in Norway to regional atmospheric circulation anomalies. J. Quaternary Sci., 27, 71–80. DOI: 10.1002/jqs.1520
Erik W. Kolstad
I'm a researcher at Uni Research and the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research in Bergen, Norway. I took my PhD in meteorology at the Geophysical institute at the University of Bergen in 2007, focusing mainly on polar lows and marine cold air outbreaks. After that I was lucky enough to be part of a substantial Norwegian IPY research project entitled IPY-THORPEX, led by the late Jón Egill Kristjánsson. From 2011 to 2014, I worked for the commercial weather company StormGeo in Bergen, before I came back “home” to Uni Research Climate and the Bjerknes Centre for climate research. Apart from polar meteorology, one of my main research interests is seasonal forecasting. This started somewhat by coincidence, when I met Adam Scaife and we started discussing whether stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) could potentially influence cold air outbreaks over the Northeast Atlantic, which would then mean that they influenced the probability of polar lows. We wrote a paper about that in QJRMS in 2010. In the recently started European Commission project Blue Action, I will pick this idea back up and study the predictability of cold air outbreaks (and indirectly of polar lows) on the seasonal time scale. In 2015, I also published the first paper in a series on month-to-month persistence and its physical pathways. Persistence is perhaps the most readily available source of predictability in the climate system, and is therefore a key predictor in empirical forecast models. The second paper, where the mechanisms for persistence are investigated, is now in review in QJRMS.
I have long experience in leadership, co-production and outreach. In 2010, I was recruited as the head of the research groups for regional climate modelling and climate services at Uni Research and the Bjerknes Centre. When at StormGeo, I had the responsibility for all operational forecasts and hindcasts. Currently, I co-lead the same research group at Uni Research Climate, where one of my main tasks is the nurture and establish new collaborations with researchers at other institutions, including from other disciplines. In this capacity, I will be involved in the newly established Centre for Climate and Energy Transformation at the University of Bergen. Inter-disciplinary research and climate service is my other main research interest. I lead the Research Council of Norway (RCN) funded HordaKlim project. This is a collaboration with Hordaland county, and the aim is to make future climate projections usable and relevant for users in municipalities and businesses in western Norway. User engagement, two-way communication and co-production are key words that describe this work. I’m also a work package leader in two other climate service projects, and I currently supervise one PhD student. In terms of outreach, I have written or contributed to four popular science books, and I frequently write opinion articles in Norwegian newspapers. I am also often interviewed for newspaper articles, or for radio and TV, and I have several active web pages and blogs about weather and climate.
Here's an extract from my full CV (which can be downloaded here):
I'm currently leading an initiative to establish a new research centre for seasonal forecasting at the Bjerknes Centre. Please get in touch if this sounds interesting, whether you're a researcher or a potential user.
- Ph.D. in meteorology, GFI, 2007. Thesis: Extreme winds in the Nordic Seas: polar lows and Arctic fronts in a changing climate
- M.Sc. in applied mathematics (plasma dynamics), Dept. of Mathematics, UB, 1997. Thesis: Stability of a tokamak in the presence of a resistive wall
- First year of technical studies at the INSA Toulouse, France, 1992–1993
- Current (from June 2015): Principal Researcher (Forsker I), Uni Research Climate (UNI) & Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR). I'm also co-leading the research group for regional climate and climate service at UNI
- 2014–2015: Senior researcher (Forsker II) at UNI & BCCR
- Current (from 2013): Co-founder of Suncurves
- 2011–14: Senior researcher/developer at StormGeo
- 2010: Head of the research group for global and regional climate projections at UNI & BCCR
- 2007–10: Postdoctoral researcher, UNI & BCCR
- 2003–07: Ph.D. student, Geophysical institute (GFI), University of Bergen (UiB) and BCCR
- 2000–03: Programmer, ICEsoft AS (later aquired by WindRiver), Bergen
- 1999–2000: Programmer, PMSC (later aquired by CSC), Bergen
Commissions of trust
- Current (from 2014) and for the IPY-THORPEX special edition in 2011: Associate editor of the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
- 2015–2016: Board member of the Norwegian Geophyisical Union
- Reviewer for Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Journal of Climate, Journal of Geophysical Research–Atmospheres, Climate Dynamics, Geophysical Research Letters, Tellus A, Atmospheric Science Letters, and Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
- Proposal reviewer for the US National Science Foundation
Budget: about 6.2M NOK. Main funder: The Research Council of Norway. Project period: 2017-2020
The goal of HordaFlom is to reconstruct the frequency and severity of floods in Western Norway. One thing that became apparent when working on HordaKlim (see below) was that many municipalities are note even adapted to today's climate, let alone the climate of a warmer future. One of the reasons is that we don't have enough data to calculate 200-year return levels, which is the level used by municipalities when planning new infrastructure. What we aim to do is to use sediment cores from the bottom of lakes to reveal how floods have behaved in the past. Our aim is to use this information to constrain current 200-year return levels and to also constrain climate model projections for the future.
Budget: about 5.5M NOK. Main funder: The Research Council of Norway. Project period: 2015-2018
I lead this project, where the goal is to provide relevant information on future climate change to municipalities and businesses in Hordaland, western Norway. The project is inter-disciplinary, and has two main objectives. One is to communicate with the users in order to know what they need, but also to let them know what they can get. This two-way communication has been very interesting for all parties, and have led to a lot of surprising findings (at least for me). The other objective is to build a climate model for the region. The geography is dominated by mountains and fjords, so what we need are high-resolution numerical weather prediction models. Otherwise we would not have been able to capture all the local differences.
Budget: about €8M. Funding agency: The European Commission. Project period: 2016-2020
The main objective of this EU project is:
To actively improve our ability to describe, model, and predict Arctic climate change and its impact on Northern Hemisphere climate, weather and their extremes, and to deliver valuated climate services of societal benefit. I lead two tasks.
The first task is called Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting of severe weather, and is about finding out if severe weather such as polar lows is predictable on time scales of 10-90 days. We already know that individual weather events are not predictable that far ahead, but we want to check if the environments in which they form are predictable. For polar lows that would be cold air outbreaks, which I've studied a great deal with Tom Bracegirdle.
The second task is to apply the knowledge that we hopefully gain in the first task. We've partnered up with DNV GL to do this. What we want to do is to
communicate and disseminate risks of polar lows by means of maps that will be tailored to high-level end-users and thus providing practical application of medium-to-long-range prediction of marine cold air outbreaks and polar lows, to limit risks for humans, business activities and the environment in the Arctic.
I usually give 20–30 presentations per year to a wide range of audiences, from scientific conferences (usually in English) to more popular science presentations at inter-disciplinary conferences (usually in Norwegian). Here's a selection:
- Polar lows and Arctic fronts: mesoscale weather systems at high latitudes. EGU general assembly, Vienna, 2007 (invited)
- Climate change: Impacts and adaptation. Strategies for developing a knowledge base from climate system studies. SANORD meeting, Cape Town, 2007 (invited)
- Results from the IPY-THORPEX field campaign in 2008. SCAR/IPY open science conference in St Petersburg, 2008 (invited)
- Extreme small-scale wind episodes over the Barents Sea — when, where and why? EGU general assembly, Vienna, 2015
- Stratospheric Pathways to Enhanced Persistence of European Surface Temperatures. EGU general assembly, Vienna, 2015 [pdf]
- Polar lows: Arctic hurricanes? Abisko polar prediction winter school, 2016 (invited)
- Why are models unable to reproduce the annual cycle of temperature persistence? SPARC DynVar Workshop & S-RIP Meeting: The Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation: Confronting Model Biases and Uncovering Mechanisms, Helsinki, 2016 [pdf]
- What do climate service users need? And what can they get? 4th Nordic Conference on Climate Change Adaptation, Bergen, 2016 (invited) [pdf]
- Climate change adaptation in Hordaland County (in Norwegian). Breakfast meeting for the labour union Naturviterne, Bergen, 2016 (invited)
- Climate change and consequences for water management (in Norwegian). VA-dagene på Innlandet, Hamar, 2016 (invited)